NEWS INFORMATION
原標(biāo)題：全球石油短缺不可避免
中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)美國油價網(wǎng)站10月27日報道，分析人士表示，自2015年石油危機以來，對石油新增供應(yīng)的長期投資不足，以及石油和天然氣公司控制排放甚至“將其封存在地下”的壓力，可能會導(dǎo)致全球石油產(chǎn)量提前達(dá)到峰值。
如果不是因為一個簡單的事實：石油需求正從疫情導(dǎo)致的低迷中反彈，最快將在明年創(chuàng)下新的年度平均紀(jì)錄，這對綠色能源倡導(dǎo)者、凈零議程和整個地球來說都將是一個備受歡迎的進(jìn)展。
能源轉(zhuǎn)型和政府的各種凈零排放計劃促使分析人士預(yù)測，石油需求峰值將比幾年前的預(yù)期更早出現(xiàn)。然而,作為目前油氣投資趨于停滯不前, 全球石油供應(yīng)可能會比全球石油需求更早達(dá)到峰值，從而造成供應(yīng)缺口，這將導(dǎo)致石油市場波動加劇，油價飆升，并有可能在2030年前后出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性上漲。
供應(yīng)可能在需求之前見頂
摩根士丹利研究部本周在路透發(fā)表的一份報告中寫道：“按照目前的趨勢，全球石油供應(yīng)可能會比需求更早達(dá)到峰值。”
摩根士丹利分析師表示：“地球為可以安全排放的碳量設(shè)定了邊界。因此，石油消費需要見頂?！?/p>
世界的問題在于，石油消費（一廂情愿的想法、投資者的壓力等等）并沒有見頂。大多數(shù)人估計，它最早也要到本世紀(jì)末才會達(dá)到峰值。
根據(jù)歐佩克最新的年度展望，該組織預(yù)計全球石油需求將在本世紀(jì)30年代中期繼續(xù)增長至1.08億桶/天，之后將在2045年之前保持平穩(wěn)。
其他一些分析師預(yù)計，需求將在本世紀(jì)20年代末達(dá)到峰值。
然而，對新供應(yīng)的投資嚴(yán)重滯后于全球石油需求的增長。
2020年疫情危機過后，需求再次增長，與2020年初的一些預(yù)期相反，世界石油消費永遠(yuǎn)不會回到疫情前的水平，目前需求距離達(dá)到并超過這些水平只有幾個月的時間。
供應(yīng)缺口將在未來幾年逼近
另一方面，在歐佩克+協(xié)議范圍之外，供應(yīng)似乎受到限制。
去年新增投資跌至15年低點。據(jù)著名咨詢機構(gòu)伍德麥肯茲今年早些時候的估計，去年全球上游投資降至3500億美元，為15年來的最低水平。
盡管油價高達(dá)80美元，但今年的投資預(yù)計也不會大幅增加。這是因為超級石油巨頭堅持資本紀(jì)律，并承諾凈零排放目標(biāo)，其中一些公司計劃通過限制投資和開發(fā)非核心、幾乎不賺錢的新石油項目來實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。
考慮到石油需求仍將增長，至少在未來幾年內(nèi)，對新增供應(yīng)的投資不足將是中長期的一個主要問題。
盡管進(jìn)行了能源轉(zhuǎn)型，但需求不會消失，未來幾年還需要新的供應(yīng)來取代不斷下降的產(chǎn)量和儲量。
歐佩克表示，未來25年，石油行業(yè)將需要大量投資才能滿足需求。歐佩克表示，到2045年，該行業(yè)將需要累計11.8萬億美元的長期上游、中游和下游石油相關(guān)投資。
法國道達(dá)爾能源首席執(zhí)行官Patrick Pouyanné本月在能源情報論壇上表示，如果石油行業(yè)停止對新增供應(yīng)的投資，到2030年油價將“飆升至頂點”，一些2050年前實現(xiàn)凈零的設(shè)想表明了這一點。Pouyanné說道：“如果我們在2020年停止投資，我們就會把所有這些資源留在地下……然后價格就會飆升。即使在發(fā)達(dá)國家，這也是一個大問題?！?/p>
每桶100美元的油價不再是一個離譜的預(yù)測
三位數(shù)的油價不再像2020年初那樣是一個離譜的預(yù)測。
美國銀行大宗商品和衍生品研究全球主管Francisco Blanch預(yù)計，油價將在2022年9月觸及100美元，如果今年冬天的氣溫遠(yuǎn)低于預(yù)期，油價可能會更早觸及100美元。
Blanch在9月底告訴彭博社，盡管過去18個月我們看到供應(yīng)嚴(yán)重投資不足，但需求正在恢復(fù)。
他說：“投資不足的問題不容易解決，與此同時，我們的需求正在飆升?！?/p>
Blanch在接受彭博社采訪時表示:“我們正進(jìn)入能源緊縮時代，我們不想使用煤炭，我們想越來越少地使用天然氣，我們想擺脫石油?！?/p>
Blanch指出，盡管油價不太可能持續(xù)保持在三位數(shù)，但投資不足已經(jīng)成為該行業(yè)“多年的問題”。
即使油價不能維持在每桶100美元，然而，未來的供應(yīng)緊張仍將推高油價，導(dǎo)致不可持續(xù)的價格飆升。盡管氣候活動人士希望停止對新增供應(yīng)的投資，但石油行業(yè)和世界負(fù)擔(dān)不起，因為石油需求繼續(xù)增長。
曹海斌 摘譯自 美國油價網(wǎng)
原文如下：
A Global Oil Shortage Is Inevitable
Chronic underinvestment in new oil supply since the 2015 crisis and the pressure on oil and gas companies to curb emissions and even “keep it in the ground” will likely lead to peak global oil production earlier than previously expected, analysts say.
This would be a welcome development for green energy advocates, net-zero agendas, and the planet if it weren’t for one simple fact: oil demand is rebounding from the pandemic-driven slump and will set a new average annual record as soon as next year.
The energy transition and the various government plans for net-zero emissions have prompted analysts to forecast that peak oil demand would occur earlier than expected just a few years ago. However, as current investment trends in oil and gas stand, global oil supply could peak sooner than global oil demand, opening a supply gap that would lead to increased volatility on the oil market, with spikes in prices, and, potentially, structurally higher oil prices by the middle of this decade and beyond.
Supply Could Peak Before Demand
“On current trends, global oil supply is likely to peak even earlier than demand,” Morgan Stanley’s research department wrote in a note this week carried by Reuters.
“The planet puts boundaries on the amount of carbon that can safely be emitted. Therefore, oil consumption needs to peak,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said.
The problem with the world is that oil consumption - wishful thinking, investor pressure, and all - is not peaking. Nor will it peak until the end of this decade at the earliest, according to most estimates.
OPEC expects global oil demand to continue to grow into the mid-2030s to 108 million barrels per day (bpd), after which it is set to plateau until 2045, as per the cartel’s latest annual outlook.
Some other analysts expect peak demand at some point in the late 2020s.
Investment in new supply, however, is severely lagging global oil demand growth.
Demand is growing again after the 2020 COVID crisis and, contrary to some expectations from early 2020 that the world’s oil consumption would never return to pre-pandemic levels, demand is currently just a few months away from hitting and exceeding those levels.
Supply Gap Is Looming In Just A Few Years
Supply, on the other hand, looks constrained beyond the OPEC+ deal horizon.
New investment last year slumped to a decade-and-a-half low. Last year, global upstream investment sank to a 15-year low of $350 billion, according to estimates by Wood Mackenzie from earlier this year.
Investment is not expected to materially pick up this year, either, despite $80 oil. That’s because supermajors stick to capital discipline and pledge net-zero emission targets, part of which some of them plan to reach by curbing investment and developments in non-core little-profitable new oil projects.
U.S. shale, for its part, is not rushing this time to “drill themselves into oblivion,” as Harold Hamm said in 2017, as American producers look to finally reward shareholders after years of plowing cash flows into drilling and chasing production growth.
Considering that oil demand will still grow, at least for a few more years, underinvestment in new supply would be a major problem in the medium and long term.
Despite the energy transition, demand will not just vanish, and new supply will be needed for years to come to replace declining production and reserves.
The oil industry will need massive investments over the next 25 years in order to meet demand, according to OPEC. The industry will need cumulative long-term upstream, midstream, and downstream oil-related investments of $11.8 trillion by 2045, OPEC says.
Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive at France’s TotalEnergies, said at the Energy Intelligence Forum this month that oil prices would “rocket to the roof” by 2030 if the industry were to stop investments in new supply, as some scenarios for net-zero by 2050 suggest. “If we stop investing in 2020, we leave all these resources in the ground ... and then the price will rocket to the roof. And even in developed countries, it will be a big issue,” Pouyanné said.
$100 Oil Is No Longer An Outrageous Prediction
A triple-digit oil price is no longer an outrageous prediction as it would have been in early 2020.
Francisco Blanch, global head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, expects oil to hit $100 by September 2022, or even earlier if this winter is much colder than expected.
Demand is coming back, while we have seen severe underinvestment in supply the last 18 months, Blanch told Bloomberg at the end of September.
“The underinvestment problem cannot be solved easily, and at the same time we have surging demand,” he said.
“We are moving into a straightjacket for energy, we don’t want to use coal, we want to use less and less gas, we want to move away from oil,” Blanch told Bloomberg.
While oil is unlikely to sit at triple digits for a sustained period of time, underinvestment has become “a multi-year problem” for the industry, Blanch noted.
Even if oil doesn’t stay at $100 a barrel, a supply crunch down the road would nevertheless move the floor under oil prices higher and lead to unsustainable price spikes. As much as climate activists want a stop to investment in new supply, the industry and the world cannot afford it because oil demand continues to grow.
